Global Poultry Market Growth Forecast Raised to 3.5% as China and Brazil Reshape Trade

The global poultry market is expected to grow by 3.0% to 3.5% in 2026, an upward revision from Rabobank’s earlier estimate of 2.5% to 3.0%. The latest RaboResearch Global Poultry Quarterly Q3 2026 says production expanded by more than 5% year-on-year in many major markets during the first quarter, led by growth in China, the European Union, South Africa, the Philippines and Brazil.

Chicken continues to gain ground because it remains competitively priced compared with beef and other animal proteins. Yet strong output does not automatically mean strong margins. Rabobank warns that oversupply, weak consumer purchasing power, volatile shipping conditions, disease risks and a tight breeding-stock market could make the second half of 2026 more difficult for producers.

Global poultry data at a glance

Data note: USDA figures are calendar-year forecasts in ready-to-cook equivalent and exclude chicken paws. The figures are forecasts, not final 2026 results.

The latest available USDA global outlook, dated 9 April 2026, places total chicken meat production at 110.728 million metric tons, nearly 3% above 2025. Global exports are projected at 14.789 million metric tons, with most additional growth expected from China and Brazil. See the USDA Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade report.

China becomes a major net chicken exporter

China’s transformation is the most important structural change in the 2026 poultry trade outlook. USDA data show that the country became a net chicken meat exporter in 2024. For 2026, production is forecast at 17.3 million metric tons, domestic consumption at 16.15 million metric tons, exports at 1.4 million metric tons and imports at only 250,000 metric tons.

China’s exports are forecast to rise by about 29% in 2026, following a 41% increase in 2025. USDA links the expansion to high grandparent-stock inventories, continued growth by integrated producers, additional slaughtering and processing capacity, competitive prices and government support.

The country’s export profile is also widening. In 2025, Japan accounted for 19% of Chinese chicken exports, Hong Kong 18%, Russia 11% and the European Union 10%. Shipments also rose sharply to price-sensitive markets in Africa, Central Asia and the Middle East, including the UAE and Iraq. Detailed production and market analysis is available in the USDA China Poultry and Products Semi-Annual report.

Brazil retains its global export leadership

Brazil remains the world’s largest chicken meat exporter. USDA’s April forecast places Brazilian production at 15.8 million metric tons and exports at 5.15 million metric tons in 2026. This gives Brazil roughly 35% of global chicken meat exports, ahead of the United States at 20%, the European Union at 12%, China at 9% and Thailand at 9%.

Brazil’s advantage rests on scale, competitive pricing, product diversity, halal-market experience and the ability to redirect shipments when a particular market is disrupted. Its export strategy also depends increasingly on health-certificate regionalization, which can prevent an entire countrywide market closure when a disease event is limited to one area.

The USDA Brazil Poultry and Products Semi-Annual report notes Brazil’s continued focus on halal markets and new-market access.

European Union, United States and Philippines outlook

European Union: demand remains firm

EU chicken meat production is forecast at 12.25 million metric tons and exports at 1.75 million metric tons. USDA expects domestic consumption to rise by 1.4% in 2026, supported by retail and foodservice demand. Lower feed and energy costs may improve competitiveness, but HPAI, Newcastle disease, environmental constraints and sanitary restrictions remain important risks.

EU imports from China increased by 36% in 2025 to more than 55,000 metric tons, mainly cooked products and offal supplied to the foodservice market. Read the USDA European Union Poultry and Products Semi-Annual report.

United States: record output, limited export growth

The United States remains the largest chicken meat producer in the USDA country table, with output forecast at 22.19 million metric tons. Production growth is supported by heavier bird weights, positive margins and firm domestic demand. Exports, however, are forecast to remain near 3.015 million metric tons because of price competition, limited product access in some markets and continuing animal-health restrictions.

Philippines: a widening supply gap

USDA’s April global table forecasts Philippine chicken consumption at 2.536 million metric tons and imports at 710,000 metric tons. A separate FAS Manila forecast places domestic production at 1.81 million metric tons, up 7% from its 2025 estimate. The difference between consumption and domestic output keeps the Philippines among the most important growth markets for suppliers.

The production estimate comes from the USDA Philippines Poultry and Products Annual report.

Food security is accelerating the move toward local production

Rabobank describes a long-term shift from globalized supply toward a “local-to-local” poultry model. Governments in parts of Africa, the Middle East and Southeast Asia are investing in domestic production to reduce import exposure, improve food security and limit the impact of shipping disruption, disease-related trade bans and currency volatility.

This localization trend does not eliminate international trade. Global poultry trade still increased by 3.5% year-on-year in Q1 2026. Instead, it changes the composition of trade: countries may import less finished meat over time while buying more genetics, equipment, feed technology, vaccines, diagnostics and processing systems.

Trade outlook is positive, but risk has increased

Rabobank’s report was published on 29 June and said an interim US-Iran arrangement had reduced near-term shipping and energy risks. That assessment should not be presented as the current situation without qualification. By 11–12 July, renewed hostilities and threats to commercial shipping around the Strait of Hormuz had again increased uncertainty. For a 13 July publication, the accurate conclusion is that Gulf shipping risk remains elevated and can change quickly.

The commercial message is straightforward: producers should not treat a positive global growth forecast as permission for unchecked expansion. Bird placements, feed procurement and processing capacity must remain aligned with verified demand.

VNV Insight: What the global shift means for Pakistan

For a wider regional perspective, read VNV’s analysis Pakistan at the Center of Regional Food Security. Producers may also find value in How Broiler Performance and Sustainability Move Together, Poultry Feed Demand Drives Growth in the European Feed Market and VNV’s heat-stress management guide.

Why this matters

Poultry remains one of the most adaptable and cost-competitive segments of the animal-protein economy. The sector’s 2026 expansion is real, but the benefits will not be shared equally. Companies with efficient feed use, strong disease control, diversified markets and disciplined supply planning are better placed to protect margins. Those relying only on volume growth face a greater risk of oversupply and price pressure.

Frequently asked questions

Editorial update: Data and source status checked on 13 July 2026. The next USDA global livestock and poultry trade report is scheduled for October 2026, so this article should be reviewed when that release becomes available.