Pakistan is projected to harvest 29 million tons of wheat during the 2026/2027 season. This figure is slightly above the 28.98 million tons recorded in the previous season that concluded in April 2026. This data comes from the Foreign Agricultural Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS USDA).
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A ban on wheat imports remains active despite tight local supplies and climbing domestic prices. The FAS USDA indicates that authorities are tracking market trends and could potentially remove the import restrictions later in the season. However, based on historical trends and current regulations, import figures will likely remain low.
Export restrictions are also firmly in place. Security issues alongside the closure of the Pakistan-Afghanistan border have completely paused cross-border shipments of wheat flour into Afghanistan.
Shifting Procurement Models
At the start of the season, the government introduced a new wheat purchasing strategy. The plan aims to transition from a state-run procurement setup to a market-based model to limit direct official intervention.
The strategy focused heavily on purchasing from the Punjab province via public-private partnerships, transferring buying duties to private entities. To encourage private participation, the state offered multiple incentives:
- Subsidized financial backing
- Complimentary storage spaces at food department facilities
- Government staff support to assist with logistics
The new system has faced execution challenges, causing actual purchase volumes to fall short of targets. Financial negotiations between private firms and banking institutions broke down because of disagreements regarding interest rates.
Rice Production Trends and Export Logistics
The rice production outlook for the 2026/2027 season (running November to October) dropped to 9.1 million tons due to a decrease in overall planting area. This is a decline from the current harvest of 9.4 million tons.
Conversely, rice export projections for the 2026/2027 season reached 4.9 million tons. This marks a 2 million ton increase compared to the 2025/2026 period.
Export logistics face hurdles due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. In response, the government opened six new overland trade corridors to maintain export routes to Iran and the Central Asian republics.