USDA Raises Broiler, Dairy and Egg Production Outlook as Prices Ease Across Key Animal Protein Markets
The latest USDA Economic Research Service outlook points to expanding U.S. broiler, milk and table-egg production, lower egg prices, softer broiler prices, and continued disease-related caution in livestock and poultry markets.
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1. Broiler production outlook strengthened: USDA now projects U.S. broiler production at 49.377 billion pounds in 2026 and 49.700 billion pounds in 2027, supported by higher chick placements and rising hatching-layer inventories.
2. Dairy production raised: U.S. milk production is forecast at 236.4 billion pounds in 2026 and 237.0 billion pounds in 2027, reflecting a larger dairy herd and higher milk yield per cow.
3. Egg prices remain under pressure: New York wholesale large egg prices averaged only 67.85 cents per dozen in May 2026, about 81% lower year over year, while table-egg production is expected to rise in both 2026 and 2027.
The USDA Economic Research Service Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook for June 2026 gives a clear signal for global animal protein markets: production is expanding in several categories, but prices are not moving equally. For readers of The Veterinary News & Views, the report is important because U.S. market signals often influence international feed, meat, dairy, egg and animal health discussions.
Broiler Sector: Production Raised, Prices Revised Lower
USDA reported that April 2026 U.S. broiler production reached 4.159 billion pounds, up 5.1% from April 2025. The increase was mainly driven by a higher number of birds slaughtered, along with heavier average weights.
The first-quarter broiler production estimate was revised to 12.002 billion pounds, up 3.7% year over year. USDA also raised the second-quarter forecast to 12.300 billion pounds, the third-quarter forecast to 12.675 billion pounds, and the fourth-quarter forecast to 12.400 billion pounds.
Total U.S. broiler production for 2026 is now projected at 49.377 billion pounds, up 231 million pounds from the May forecast and 2.9% higher than 2025. For 2027, broiler production is projected at 49.700 billion pounds, up 0.7% from the 2026 projection.
On the price side, the national composite wholesale whole broiler price averaged 123.71 cents per pound in May. USDA projects the 2026 annual broiler price at 121.4 cents per pound, with the 2027 projection revised down to 122 cents per pound.
| Broiler Indicator | USDA June 2026 Outlook | Market Signal |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 production | 49.377 billion pounds | Higher supply outlook |
| 2027 production | 49.700 billion pounds | Further modest growth expected |
| 2026 exports | 6.619 billion pounds | Raised from May, still below 2025 |
| 2026 annual price | 121.4 cents per pound | Lower price tone as output rises |
Egg Market: Output Recovery and Sharp Price Correction
U.S. table-egg production in April 2026 totaled 637.7 million dozen, up 5.5% year over year. USDA linked the increase to a larger table-egg layer inventory and a higher average lay rate.
Highly pathogenic avian influenza pressure on the U.S. laying flock was lower than last year at the time of the June WASDE release. USDA noted that from January through May 2026, the industry lost 14.9 million birds on 12 operations due to HPAI, compared with 36.3 million egg-layers across 44 operations during the same period in 2025.
Projected U.S. table-egg production for 2026 is 7.828 billion dozen, up 4.4% year over year. For 2027, production is projected at 8.010 billion dozen, up 2.3% from the 2026 projection.
Prices have corrected sharply. New York wholesale large egg prices averaged 67.85 cents per dozen in May 2026, about 288 cents lower than a year earlier. USDA projects the 2026 annual average wholesale table-egg price at 98 cents per dozen and the 2027 average at 108 cents per dozen.
Dairy Sector: More Milk, Lower All-Milk Price Forecast
USDA raised its milk production forecasts because of higher expected dairy cow inventories and higher milk-per-cow yields. The 2026 average dairy cow inventory was revised up to 9.645 million head, while milk per cow is forecast at 24,510 pounds.
As a result, U.S. milk production is forecast at 236.4 billion pounds in 2026, an increase of 1.0 billion pounds from the previous forecast. For 2027, milk production is projected at 237.0 billion pounds, also 1.0 billion pounds higher than last month’s forecast.
The all-milk price forecast moved lower. USDA now places the 2026 all-milk price at $20.70 per hundredweight, down $0.55 from the previous forecast. The 2027 all-milk price is projected at $20.90 per hundredweight, down $0.05 from last month.
| Dairy Indicator | 2026 Forecast | 2027 Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Milk production | 236.4 billion pounds | 237.0 billion pounds |
| Dairy cow inventory | 9.645 million head | 9.650 million head |
| Milk per cow | 24,510 pounds | 24,560 pounds |
| All-milk price | $20.70/cwt | $20.90/cwt |
Beef and Cattle: Tight Supplies, New World Screwworm Watch
USDA confirmed the discovery of New World screwworm in a calf in Texas on June 3, 2026, followed by additional cases in livestock and pets. USDA and local authorities responded with quarantine and movement-control measures in affected areas.
At the national level, USDA said the known cases had not altered the underlying cattle supply situation, which remains tight. The 2026 beef production forecast was lowered to 25.438 billion pounds, while the 2027 forecast was raised slightly to 25.385 billion pounds.
Beef exports remain under pressure. U.S. beef exports in April totaled 196 million pounds, down 17% year over year. USDA lowered its 2026 beef export forecast to 2.341 billion pounds, a 9% year-over-year decline. Beef imports remain high, with the 2026 import forecast unchanged at 6.109 billion pounds, nearly 12% above last year.
Turkey: Production Growth Continues, Export Outlook Softens
Turkey production in April 2026 totaled 406.4 million pounds, up 9.6% year over year, mainly due to higher average live weights. USDA projects 2026 turkey production at 5.036 billion pounds, up 4.0% year over year. For 2027, turkey production is projected at 5.140 billion pounds, up 2.1% from 2026.
However, the turkey export projection for 2026 was lowered to 414 million pounds, reflecting slower shipment pace. For 2027, the export projection remains unchanged at 415 million pounds.
VNV Insight: Why This Matters for Pakistan
For Pakistan’s poultry, dairy, livestock and feed sectors, the USDA outlook should not be read as a local price forecast. However, it is a useful international benchmark. Higher U.S. broiler, dairy and egg output may influence global sentiment around animal protein supply, while lower egg and broiler prices show how quickly production recovery can pressure margins.
The report also highlights a familiar risk for the industry: animal disease can quickly reshape movement, trade and price expectations. HPAI in layers and turkeys, New World screwworm in cattle, and African Swine Fever-linked trade shifts in pork all show why disease surveillance, traceability and farm biosecurity remain central to market stability.
For Pakistani producers and policymakers, the bigger lesson is planning. Whether in broilers, eggs, dairy or livestock, production decisions need reliable data, clear disease reporting, and market-based forecasting. Without this discipline, the industry remains exposed to avoidable boom-and-crash cycles.
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