By Syed Ahmed Shah
Lahore 24/03/2026
As global supply chains navigate a period of heightened volatility in early 2026, the strategic importance of Pakistan’s agricultural input security has come into sharper focus. Although our domestic industry continues to demonstrate remarkable resilience, the shifting landscape of international trade is prompting a necessary discussion on how to further diversify our agricultural nutrient supply.
The Strait of Hormuz is often discussed in terms of energy, but its role as a chokepoint for the global fertilizer trade is equally critical. With nearly one-third of all seaborne fertilizer-related trade currently facing disruption, the practicalities of an import-dependent supply model have evolved from a theoretical discussion into an urgent strategic consideration for long-term food security.
Pakistan’s Fertilizer Structure: A Study in Duality
Pakistan’s fertilizer sector reflects a clear duality: strong domestic capability alongside critical external dependence.
1. Urea: The Pillar of Domestic Strength
Pakistan’s Urea sector is a cornerstone of its food security, largely insulating the country from the extreme price volatility seen in the global market. Domestic giants like Engro, Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC), and Fatima Fertilizer utilize indigenous natural gas resources from fields like Mari to meet most of the local demand.
However, this strength has a “gas-linked” ceiling. Urea production is fundamentally dependent on methane; when indigenous supply falls short, the system relies on Regasified LNG (RLNG). The “Force Majeure” events following the conflict onset on February 28, 2026, highlighted this: plants like Agritech Limited were forced into temporary shutdowns as RLNG supplies were disrupted. This proves that even our domestic strength is partially tethered to global energy corridors.
2. Phosphates: The Point of Vulnerability
Unlike Urea, Pakistan remains heavily dependent on imports for phosphatic fertilizers, particularly the Phosphoric Acid required to produce Diammonium Phosphate (DAP). Pakistan is among world largest importer of Phosphoric acid, with Morocco providing over 90% of our supply.
The hidden risk here is the “Sulphur Link.” Moroccan plants require massive volumes of sulfur to process phosphate rock into acid. Since 44% of the world’s tradable sulfur originates behind the Hormuz chokepoint (in Qatar and Kuwait), a blockade there eventually starves the Moroccan plants that feed Pakistan’s fields.
Global Pressures and the “China Factor”
The crisis is further compounded by shifting policies from other global giants. China, the world’s largest producer of fertilizers, has periodically restricted exports since 2021 to prioritize its own domestic food security. These “export quotas” have removed millions of tons of DAP and Urea from the international market, leaving import-dependent nations like Pakistan with fewer alternatives when Middle Eastern or North African supply chains fail.
A Resource in Reserve: Pakistan Poultry Industry
Against this backdrop, Pakistan possesses a significant internal resource: a poultry sector now exceeding 1.2 billion broilers and over 70 million commercial layer birds. This massive population generates millions of tons of nutrient-rich waste annually.
While both are valuable, they offer different strengths for a composting strategy. Broiler litter (which includes bedding material) is excellent for bulk organic matter, while layer manure (collected from cage systems) is often more concentrated in nitrogen and calcium. Existing poultry wasteis already utilized across various sectors, yet they lack the technical standardization and pathogen elimination required to serve as a high-tier fertilizer substitute. Refined into a stabilized nutrient buffer, this volume of organic matter represents a strategic domestic resource that can effectively complement industrial production and mitigate import dependency over the long term.
International Precedent: The Path to Resilience
Pakistan would not be the first to move toward a “hybrid” model to protect its food security.
- China: As part of its “Zero Growth in Chemical Fertilizer” policy, China is successfully transitioning into using organic compost for its nutrient needs in certain regions.
- The European Union: Under its “Farm to Fork” Strategy, the EU has set a legally binding target to reduce fertilizer use by at least 20% by 2030. A key pillar of this transition is the expansion of organic farming to 25% of all agricultural land.
- Brazil: The world’s largest poultry exporter has integrated poultry litter into its massive soybean and maize production cycles, using it as a direct “buffer” against the high cost of imported synthetic phosphorus.
A Long-Term Strategy, Not an Immediate Fix
It is important to understand processed poultry waste is not a replacement for mineral fertilizers, nor can it provide an immediate solution to the supply disruptions seen in early 2026. Agricultural systems and soil dynamics take time to adapt, making this a multi-year transition rather than a quick fix. While current challenges must be addressed through energy security and policy interventions, the integration of organic nutrients offers a practical “hybrid” approach acting as a buffer to reduce risk and strengthen long-term resilience, not to replace industrial fertilizer production.
The way forward lies in building a “hybrid” fertilization model one that moves beyond raw waste toward industrial-scale processing, including value-added composting, nutrient fortification, palletization and Standardization.
Implementation of Realities and Constraints
Building a nutrient buffer requires clearing several structural hurdles:
- Industrial Scaling: Developing infrastructure for composting and pelletizing capable of processing millions of tons of litter into a commercial-grade product.
- Scientific Validation: Conducting multi-season field trials to prove to a “chemical-reliant”farming population that hybrid models maintain yields while lowering the long-term national import bill.
- Government Intervention and Financing: Encouraging targeted government support through subsidies on imported equipment, public-private partnership models, and the facilitation of easy agricultural financing to enable investment in composting and pelletizing infrastructure.
- Regulatory Framework: Establishing and enforcing a clear regulatory system to manage poultry manure movement, including guidelines that promote on-farm or nearby composting in poultry-dense regions, reducing environmental risks while improving localized nutrient utilization.
- Market Development and Farmer Adoption: Building awareness, trust, and commercial demand among farmers through extension services, demonstration farms, and incentive mechanisms to ensure adoption of compost-based products as a viable component within existing fertilization practices.
Conclusion
The events of March 2026 serve less as an isolated disruption and more as a reminder of how interconnected and sensitive modern fertilizer systems have become. In a landscape where energy corridors, shipping chokepoints, and export policies are increasingly intertwined, reliance on a single stream of supply whether imported phosphates or energy-linked urea production naturally carries inherent risk. For Pakistan, this does not call for abrupt shifts, but rather for a gradual broadening of options that can work alongside existing systems.
A practical way forward lies in strengthening what already exists while systematically developing complementary local resources. Securing domestic urea production through stable and predictable energy access remains essential, just as maintaining strong trade relationships continues to be important for imported inputs. Alongside these pillars, locally available organic materials particularly from the poultry sector can be organized into a structured and standardized stream through composting and palletization. This does not replace conventional fertilizers, but it can help smooth out fluctuations when external pressures arise.
Over time, such a layered approach can contribute to a more resilient agricultural base, where multiple sources collectively support soil fertility rather than a single dependency carrying the full burden. In this context, integrating poultry-based composting into the broader nutrient framework becomes less of an alternative and more of a complementary pathway one that enhances flexibility, supports long-term soil health, and reduces the system’s sensitivity to external shocks.