USDA Forecasts Tight Soybean Supplies, Record Corn Harvest in 2025/26 WASDE Outlook
Published in: The Veterinary News and Views
By: Staff Reporter | Date: May 15, 2025
Corn: Strong Harvest, Ample Supply, Softer Prices
The 2025/26 U.S. corn crop is forecast at 15.8 billion bushels, reflecting a 6% increase and the largest planted area in over a decade at 95.3 million acres. Yields are projected at 181.0 bushels per acre, with total supplies estimated at 17.3 billion bushels.
Usage is expected to rise by 1%, driven by feed/residual use at 5.9 billion bushels and industrial use at 6.9 billion bushels. Ethanol use remains flat at 5.5 billion bushels. The season-average farm price is projected at $4.20 per bushel.
Globally, corn production is forecast to rise to a record 1.265 billion metric tons, led by gains in the U.S., Ukraine, and Argentina.
Soybeans: Tighter Stocks, Higher Crush, and Bullish Sentiment
The U.S. soybean production for 2025/26 is estimated at 4.34 billion bushels. Yields are forecast at 52.5 bushels/acre. The crush is projected to rise to 2.49 billion bushels due to increased demand for soybean meal and oil, especially in biofuel.
Ending stocks are forecast at 295 million bushels, significantly lower than expected. Global soybean production is projected at 426.8 million tons. The U.S., Canada, and Ukraine are expected to see declines.
World soybean ending stocks are estimated at 124.33 million tonnes, supporting higher prices. The USDA forecasts $10.25/bushel for soybeans, $310/short ton for soybean meal, and 46 cents/lb for soybean oil.
Market Sentiment and Technical Outlook
Traders view the soybean portion of the WASDE report as bullish. Technical resistance for July beans is above $11, with November beans approaching $10.80.
About the WASDE Report
The WASDE report is published monthly by the USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB). It provides global and U.S. supply-demand estimates for key commodities. The May edition is critical as it includes first full-year forecasts.
Upcoming reports like the Acreage Report (June 30) will refine these figures as the season progresses.
Key Takeaways
- Corn: Record production, lower prices.
- Soybeans: Tight supply, bullish prices.
- Global: Brazil and Argentina increase output, U.S. sees decline.
- Implication: Affordable corn, costlier soybean meal for livestock feed.